|
From Idaho Business News
Thredgold: No Idaho economic upturn soon
Idaho
likely will stay in a recession for nine to 12 months, before a modest upturn in
the second half of 2010, economist Jeff Thredgold wrote in the summer issue of
Zions Bank’s Insight – Economic News of Idaho and the Nation.
Weak
global demand for high-technology products has hit the state hard, leading to
many job cuts, he wrote. Winter sports spending dropped, particularly at
destination resorts.
“The
economies of Idaho and its neighbors have been damaged by national and global
issues of recession, constrained financial flows, declining home values and
highly volatile stock prices,” Thredgold wrote. “However, the sharp rise in
American stock prices of the past three months – by some measures the strongest
three-month rally in 75 years – reflects an investor view that the worst is
behind us. Numerous other signs of economic and financial stabilization are also
emerging frequently.”
New home
construction in Idaho and neighboring states remains weak as prices for existing
homes continue to decline, dragged by foreclosed properties, he wrote. But Idaho
home price declines appear relatively modest compared to those seen in Arizona,
California and Nevada, he added.
Idaho should benefit from the U.S. economy’s move toward modest growth by the
end of this year, and from a return to modest growth globally by the middle of
next year, according to Thredgold.
Unemployment averaged 7.3 percent in Idaho in recent months – compared to 3
percent in 2006-07 – and is expected to rise, he wrote. Unemployment rates have
been lower recently in Utah, Montana and Wyoming, and higher in Nevada, Oregon
and Washington.
Idaho lost about 32,000 net jobs in the past 12 months, down 4.9 percent.
Jobs lost included about 15,000 in the goods-producing sector, down 13.2
percent; high-tech job cuts have had a major impact, and total manufacturing
employment in Idaho is at its lowest in 17 years, Thredgold wrote.
http://www.zionsbancorporation.com/zionsbank/ins/insID2009summer.html
From Zions Bank
Idaho Economic Outlook
Summer 2009
Written by Jeff Thredgold, President, Thredgold Economic Associates Economic
Consultant to Zions Bank
Under Pressure -
The Idaho economy has remained under severe downward pressure in recent months,
in line with similar economic pain among many of the state’s neighbors. Idaho’s
recession is expected to continue during the next 9-12 months before a modest
upturn during 2010’s second half.
Idaho’s recessionary performance since early last year is matched by the
majority of states, including every Western state but Alaska. Roughly 47 of 50
states have experienced anywhere from slight to severe declines in total
employment during the most recent 12-month period.
Many residents of the Gem State had perhaps developed a mindset that the state’s
economy was largely immune from what happens across the nation or around the
globe. Such views were dashed during the past 18 months as Idaho slipped into
its most serious economic decline in a generation.
Western Weakness -
Idaho’s unemployment rate has more than doubled, averaging 7.3% in recent
months, versus the state’s 3.0% annual average during 2006-2007. The state’s
estimated 7.8% jobless rate for May was the highest in 22 years.
By comparison, Wyoming’s jobless rate in April was 4.5%, while Utah’s rate
during April was 5.2%. Montana’s jobless rate in April was 6.0%. Washington’s
jobless rate was 9.1%, while Nevada’s rate was a painful 10.6%, with Oregon at
12.0%. Idaho’s jobless rate is expected to rise.
Ups and Downs -
The Idaho economy has lost roughly 32,000 net jobs during the past 12 months, a
painful 4.9% decline. Total goods-producing employment has fallen by roughly
15,000 jobs (down 13.2%) during the past year. The state’s high technology
sector has been reducing job totals in a major way, tied to weak global demand.
Total manufacturing employment within Idaho is now at its lowest overall level
in 17 years.
Service-providing sectors lost nearly 17,000 jobs (down 3.2%), with trade,
transportation & utilities; professional & business services; and leisure &
hospitality recording the greatest numerical declines. Government, information,
and education & health services added 6,500 jobs collectively.
Declining Values -
New home construction within Idaho and among its neighbors remains extremely
weak, with prices for existing homes continuing to decline. Foreclosed
properties remain a drag on existing home values in all markets.
However, Idaho home price declines appear relatively modest when viewed against
much greater declines in Arizona, California, and Nevada, where prices in major
cities within those states have fallen an average of 47% versus their highs in
2006 or 2007, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city index.
Not Immune -
A widely held view was that the winter sports industry was largely immune from
economic weakness—that people would still ski despite recessionary periods. That
view was shattered during the past year, with a sharp decline in winter sports
spending across the West, especially for destination resorts. Visitation to Sun
Valley and other Idaho ski areas was down sharply.
Outside Forces -
The economies of Idaho and its neighbors have been damaged by national and
global issues of recession, constrained financial flows, declining home
values, and highly volatile stock prices. One could also add to the mix high
anxiety about massive levels of government spending and associated record
budget deficits, as well as low levels of consumer and corporate confidence.
However, the sharp rise in American stock prices of the past three months—by
some measures the strongest three-month rally in 75 years—reflects an
investor view that the worst is behind us. Numerous other signs of economic
and financial stabilization are also emerging frequently.
Idaho Outlook -
The most severe economic and financial turbulence since the Great Depression
has hammered the Idaho economy, like that of nearly all 50 states. Weak
global demand for high tech products produced in Idaho has led to thousands
of job cuts.
However, with widely held expectations that the U.S. economy can move toward
modest growth by the end of the year, Idaho’s outlook improves. A return to
modest global growth by mid-2010 is also currently expected. Idaho’s economy
will benefit from the expected stronger outside performance, with a likely
return to positive growth in 2010’s second half, and more traditional solid
performance in following years.
According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, Idaho ranks 20th in
the nation in unemployment, putting the Gem State continues to be in the top
tier of states, although current rates place unemployment up to 8.4% from
the 7.8% in that report.
Business Growth -
In 2008, 24,296 new businesses filed with the Secretary of State, down over
15 percent from 2008 and the second straight annual decline. The previous
decline was in 2001 during that national recession. Source:
Idaho Secretary of State
Job
Growth -
Job losses in the Idaho economy escalated to over 37,400 between May 2008
and May 2009, dropping nonfarm jobs to 618,200. That was down 5.7 percent
from a year earlier and below both 2007 and 2006. For all of 2008, jobs were
off 1 percent, the first annual decline in payrolls since 1986. Nationally,
nonfarm jobs fell 4 percent in May compared to a year earlier. Construction,
which has been hemorrhaging jobs since mid-2007 as the housing bubble burst,
and manufacturing, primarily in the high technology sector, accounted for 40
percent of Idaho’s losses. Trade, professional and business services and
restaurants and bars accounted for the bulk of the rest. Only health care
and information were in the black.
High-tech employment, which averaged 56,700 in 2007 and appeared to be
gaining, declined again in 2008 and early 2009 following major layoffs at
Micron Technology in the second half of 2007, in 2008 and early 2009 along
with others in the industry including MPC and Hewlett-Packard. The sector
hit bottom in 2003 at 52,127 after peaking two years earlier at 58,159.
Employment in 2008 averaged 55,559.
Source:
Idaho Department
of Labor
Number of People Working -
Only 692,000 people were working in Idaho in May 2009, – 27,000 fewer than a
year earlier and the third straight month under 700,000 since September
2005. It was the 16th straight month that employment has been below year-ago
levels. Total unemployment hit a record 58,300 as the jobless rate spiked to
7.8 percent, the highest rate since April 1987. Idaho’s 3.7 percent
employment decline matched the decline nationally as the jobless rate across
the country climbed to 9.4 percent.
Source:
Idaho Department
of Labor
http://labor.idaho.gov/lmi/pubs/idempnews/iecur.pdf
According to the Idaho Department of Labor, Bonner County’s unemployment
rate is up a tick to 8.9% from 8.8% from May to June. The normal pattern of
lower unemployment with the summer tourist season has not come to pass as in
previous years. June hiring is just not what it has historically been.
Weak June Hiring Sends Jobless Rate to 25-Year High
Idaho businesses hired fewer people last month than they have during June
for the last decade, pushing the forecasted seasonally adjusted unemployment
rate up another half percentage point to 8.3 percent.
June’s rate was the highest jobless rate since October 1983 when the state
was pulling out of the double-dip recession that ushered in a major economic
shift from natural resources to services augmented by some expanded advanced
manufacturing – particularly in the high technology sector.
Read more... 7/2/2009
However, we have not gone up either relatively. This is good news. Many
businesses are hanging on by a thread. Belwood’s has sold furniture for
decades in Sandpoint, but will be closing its doors this month. While this
is only one business, we can expect to see at least a few more businesses
quit operations sometime during the fall and winter slowdown.
While the local economy in Sandpoint and Bonner County is not dismal, it is
also a reflection of the slower economic times reflecting national
realities. One sparkling sign are the tourists that flooded the area for
July 4th and the following weekend of the events that peppered
the county: Jerry Fest, the Wooden Boat Show, and Dover Bay Days. The summer
of 2008 saw fewer boats on Lake Pend Oreille, much because of the higher gas
prices that year suffered from. 2009 had a slow boating start, but once
again there are numerous boats on the lake.
Tourism -
Despite decent snow, winter tourism revenues were off 5.6 percent for the
2008-2009 November-March season from 2007-2008, a reflection of the
recession and decisions against vacation travel. Higher travel costs and
increasing economic uncertainty did not keep hotel, motel and private
campground receipts from hitting a new record of $407.6 million in 2008, up
from $388.9 million in 2007. Receipts for January-May 2009, however, were
off more than 15 percent – $22.2 million – from the first five months of
2008. Tourism has been estimated to account for about 5 percent of Idaho’s
gross state product. Sources:
Idaho Travel Council;
Global Insights’ Economic Impact of Tourism on Idaho’s
From
the State of Idaho Department of Commerce
|
Idaho
ranks 14th in Economic Outlook
Washington, D.C.:
In the midst of economic turmoil, federal bailouts, and budget deficits in
more than 40 states, a new report from the American Legislative Exchange
Council ranks Idaho's economic outlook 14th in the nation, based on
performance trends from states in the last 10 years.
The second edition of "Rich States, Poor States: ALEC-Laffer State Economic
Competitive Index" shows how the federal bailout of the states may encourage
out-of-control spending by states, which is up 124 percent over the last 10
years, without requiring them to make the tough decisions needed to bring
about financial stability.
"States were quick to increase spending and add programs during the good
times," Idaho Rep. Jim Clark, ALEC's Idaho state chairman, said. "We need to
make tough choices to live within our means. The best solution to our budget
woes is to control state spending and promote policies that foster economic
growth and job creation."
The report presents rankings of the 50 states based on the relationship
between policies and performance - revealing which states are best
positioned to make a recovery, and which are not.
States ranking in the top five in the report are Utah, Colorado, Arizona,
Virginia and South Dakota.
http://www.ecodevdirectory.com/idaho.htm
http://dfm.idaho.gov/Publications/EAB/Forecast/ForecastIndex.html
Northern
Idaho Area Labor Market Information
Northern Idaho is comprised of the five northern most counties of Idaho:
Benewah, Bonner, Boundary, Kootenai, and Shoshone. The beauty and lifestyle of
this area has attracted thousands of new residents in recent years, making it
Idaho’s second most populous region. The region’s largest city, Coeur d’Alene,
is just 33 miles from Spokane, Washington, where many Northern Idaho residents
work. Industries playing major economic roles include the lumber industry, a
wide variety of other manufacturing industries, tourism, retail, agriculture,
call centers and the Coeur d’Alene and Kootenai Tribes.
-
-
- Bonners
Ferry Coeur
d'Alene
IdahoWorks Job Search
N. IDAHO CHAMBERS OF COMMERCE
Wikipedia Idaho Facts
Macneil-Lehrer.com:
Background Information: The Changing Idaho
Economy
New Study Finds Tourism an
Increasing Economic Factor in Idaho
Idaho's
Incredible Business Incentives
Starting a Business in Idaho
Priest River Development Corporation
Bonner County Economic Development
Corporation
BuyIdaho.org - Newsletter
Idaho Game & Fishery Economic Facts
Inland Northwest Economic Developments, Winter 2008
The following are projects, initiatives and economic developments that are
making news in eastern Washington and northern Idaho. This email is distributed
by the Inland Northwest
Lewiston, Idaho – Munitions and rocket motor manufacturer, ATK, has completed -
ahead of schedule - the training of more than 100 workers at its Lewiston plant
using a $272,000 grant from the Idaho Department of Labor grant. In January
2007, the company was awarded a five-year federal contract worth up to $90
million to supply ammunition to the Department of Homeland Security. Much of the
work is being done at the Lewiston plant, which has over 900 workers. To learn
more, read the press release at
http://labor.idaho.gov.
Lewis-Clark State College broke ground this spring on a $16 million Nursing and
Health Sciences building at its Lewiston, Idaho campus. The new addition will
contain labs for Natural Sciences in addition to classrooms. Expected completion
is fall 2009. Visit www.lcsc.edu to learn more.
Boundary County, Idaho – An Idaho Community Gem Grant, engineered by the
Panhandle Area Council, has been awarded to the Inland Pacific Hub project to
embark on a $300,000, year-long study to develop strategies to create the
regional transportation system hub. The Inland Pacific Hub is an inland
transportation corridor with vital routes between the Columbia River and north
into the Canadian provinces of British Columbia and Alberta as well as east-west
routes. To learn more, view this PowerPoint presentation:
http://www.inwp.org/pdf/InlandNorthwestCrossroads.pdf
Spokane County has seen the greatest gains in retail sales of all 58 counties in
Washington State, according to the Washington State Retail Survey. Spokane
retail sales have grown at a rate that is 176 percent higher than the statewide
norm over the past five years. The Washington State Retail Survey ranks each
county based on a number of factors to determine the "relative strength index.”
Learn more at
http://washingtonstateretailsurvey.com.
Rathdrum, Idaho – The Rathdrum Prairie will soon be home to a trade-technical
high school where students can prepare for a technical career. Students
interested careers such as diesel mechanic, machinist or welder will have the
opportunity to attend a school that offers courses in those and other trades in
addition to traditional high school courses. On the same 100-acree parcel of
land, North Idaho College will establish a campus geared toward professional and
technical education, allowing students to move seamlessly into college programs.
These schools will focus on the 80-plus percent of local young people who don’t
pursue a four-year college degree. To learn more, read the following
Spokesman-Review article
http://www.spokesmanreview.com/breaking/story.asp?ID=17510.
Spotlight on Inland Ports
Lewiston, Idaho – The Port of Lewiston, Idaho’s only water access point to the
Pacific Ocean, plays the traditional port role, off-loading the region’s
significant exports in timber, grain and other agricultural products, as well as
containerized cargo, including plastics, jet boats, log homes and more. It also
handles select imports, including heavy equipment destined for the Tar Sands in
Alberta, Canada. Innovatively, the Port offers business incubator services to
help young companies lay a strategic foundation for growth. Recently, the Port
began development of an off-water, 42-acre business and technology park,
presenting a campus setting, fiber optics and infrastructure for light
manufacturing, professional services and R&D operations.
|